Swedish air pollutant emission scenarios to 2050

This study has been part of the CLEO research program funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The main aim of the study was to assess influences on air pollutant emissions by increased substitution of fossil fuels with biomass fuels for combustion in 2050, by analyzing various emission scenarios.

Sammanfattning

This study has been part of the CLEO (Climate Change and Environmental Objectives) research program funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The main aim of the study was to assess influences on air pollutant emissions (mainly particulate matter, PM) by increased substitution of fossil fuels with biomass fuels for combustion in 2050, by analyzing various emission scenarios. Based on scenarios from the CLEO project Strategies for future forest management an analysis if future increase in biomass fuel demand could be met by domestically harvested forest biomass output is also made. The emission scenarios in this study are based on scenarios for fuel consumption developed during the Swedish Roadmap 2050 project and from the IEA NETP Carbon-Neutral high Bioenergy Scenario, in combination with Swedish national emission factors and emission factors corresponding to Best Available Technology.

In addition, emission data from EU Commission baseline projection has been used. Generally, the results in this study show that PM emissions 2007-2030 decrease significantly in all scenarios due to an expected reduction in the domestic transport sector. Moreover, this study indicates that PM emission trends 2030-2050 largely will depend on the end use sector, the combustion and emission abatement technology, and the type and quality of biomass used in Sweden. In particular, this applies to the small scale combustion sector. However, the level of PM2.5 emissions estimated for Sweden from this sector are uncertain - largely related to the emission measurement method used to derive the Swedish national EFs and the lack of sufficiently detailed knowledge of the type and extent of use of existing small scale combustion appliances in Sweden. The analysis made in this study indicates that there is a theoretical potential to fulfill most of the needs at a high biomass use scenario by increased harvesting of biomass in Sweden by 2050.

Den här rapporten finns endast på engelska. Svensk sammanfattning finns i rapporten.

Medarbetare: Karin Kindbom, Tomas Gustafsson

Nyckelord: CLEO, air pollutant,

Typ: Rapport

År: 2015

Rapportnummer: B2227

Författare: Tomas Gustafsson, Karin Kindbom

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