GAINS and EMEP modelling in the Russian Federation - Analysis on the regional level

The report summarizes the results of the integrated assessment modelling work with the focus on the exploring advantages of model regionalization. The main results are as follows:

• New region-specific complete input data sets for the GAINS Russia model of good quality, based on the national statistics and resulting in emissions corresponding well with the official emission inventory results for the base year 2010.

• New region-specific baseline scenarios in GAINS Russia for the years 2020 and 2030.

• Region-specific GAINS scenarios for NOx and agricultural ammonia, reflecting potential emission reduction efforts within the Gothenburg Protocol under the UNECE CLRTAP and analysis of alternative ways to decide on spatial distribution of abatement measures and costs in order to reach a certain emission reduction target.

• Summary of historical black carbon emission estimates for the Russian Federation and their sectoral and regional structure.

• Region-specific GAINS scenarios for black carbon, targeting three large emitting sectors – flaring of associated gases in the oil industry, diesel non-road transport, and residential combustion; analysis of the resulting emissions, measures, costs and health benefits.

• Updated sets of gridded emission data for the Russian Federation for EMEP modelling.

• Analysis of the EMEP model performance and the impact of input data updates and fine resolution on the modelling results.

• Verification of EMEP modelling results for the Russian Federation with available observation data.

• Analysis of the fine resolution in the EMEP model on the resulting trans-boundary effects.

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