Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

This article is about perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems.

Summary

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis.

Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Coworkers: Ida Westerberg

Year: 2017.0

Report number: A2271

Authors: Ida Westerberg, Di Baldassarre, G., Beven, K. J., Coxon, G., Krueger, T.

Published in: Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62, 1705-1713, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926